I never really entertained the notion, oft
If anything, Iraq was more likely to become a second Korea.
Afghanistan, though. Now there's your potential quagmire. A population not centuries but a millennium removed from the rest of the planet... Class V terrain that favors the native enemy... A vast nebulous border behind which said enemy can retreat, resupply and regroup at will... Rules of engagement that prevent us from sealing that border... A population beholden to the enemy for sustenance (the poppy trade)... The list goes on.
Michael Yon has been dropping none-too subtle hints for some time that we could be up the creek without a paddle in Afghanistan, that this one may not be surge-able. Check out these stats.
Today's news from shifting, shiftless Pakistan only backs up that data.
One thing's for sure. If anyone is the type of leader to pull his punches and thereby make defeat (or pointless stalemate) inevitable, it's President Obama.